I must apologize for the lack of blogs over the past three weeks. My internet was very limited when I returned home from uni so I didn’t quite have the chance. So what I’m going to do is cover the Tv Debate in this instalment, then take a look and dissect the parties manifestos on Friday.
The biggest news with this election is obviously last Thursday’s TV debate and the impact it has had on the election. Despite what people said, I thought it was really good to see all of the party leaders debating and arguing with one another, really showing some passion and exposing one another’s flaws and weaknesses. So who did the best, well there is no getting away from it, Nick Clegg had nothing to loose and he most certainly didn’t loose anything. What the debate has done for the Lib Dems over night is remarkable. The night before the Tories were ahead in the polls over labour with a clear 8 to 9 points, on 39%, with Labour on 31% and the Lib Dems down with 20%. Friday sees the Lib Dems increase their lead by a massive 9%, much more than anyone could have predicted. The Tories lost around 6% and Labour 2%. This has completely redefined the election. Out of all the leaders it was David Cameron who seemed to have lost the most. I think he just beaten Gordon Brown to 2nd debate, but has now lost a lot of ground on winning an overall majority. Cameron failed to take advantage of Brown’s weaknesses by hardly ever attacking Labour and completely failed to scrutinise the Lib Dem’s policies. In fact despite the slip to third in the polls for Labour, they now find themselves in a real opportunity to maintain his power.
If Conservatives fail to win an outright majority it will be up to the Lib Dems to forge a coalition Government with either the Tories or Labour, and I have a feeling the Lib Dems have a bit more in common with Labour than they do with the Tories. So somehow Labour have managed to find more positives out of this Lib Dem surge than the Tories. Having said that, Labour are now at their lowest point in the polls than they have been since the 80’s. People just don’t want to see another Labour term of Government, but in fact switching to the Lib Dems, may just give them another 5 years of the current PM. And this is what Cameron is trying to get across. Monday saw him release a video from his garden stressing the point of a need for a single party, strong government. This is, however, clear signs that the leader of the opposition has been rattled by the Lib Dems overnight success. The Tories just haven’t got their campaign right. This whole idea of a ‘big society’ rather than big Government might not be a bad one, but it is a little difficult to spring the concept on the public just three weeks before they go to the polling station.
What does this mean for Nick Clegg and his party? Well, this has made them no longer just the third party, but one that really matters. I’m not saying they’ll maintain they’re poll ratings, in fact I think they’ll go down a little bit, but it wont go down to the 20% mark again for a while. It also means they will receive the coverage from the print media, an area they just haven’t had the same coverage in compared to the other two. And what most important for them, it means that they win more seats in Parliament and can now be in a position to be that second party in a coalition and demand some of their polices are put in place. Now I’m not saying a hung parliament would be good for the economy, in fact that is what economists fear the most, but what it could mean is the demand from the Lib Dems, of proportional representation, a truly fair voting system that our politics is lacking. What this also means for the Lib Dems is that they need to be ready to have their polices closely looked at and also be able to fund and co-ordinate an effective election campaign over the next couple of weeks.
Right, the TV debate itself. Why did it give Clegg such a positive image whilst leaving the other two looking nervy and badly represented? Clegg kept one hand in his pocket and talked directly to the camera. He came across cool, calm and in control. Brown, as we know, isn’t great when he does things like this. He often looks nervy and isn’t great with the presentation. I think he held his own very well, but lacked anything to really appeal to the viewer. Cameron, who one the other hand, is good in these situations, came across in his usually presentable manor, but what he didn’t do is attack Brown on his Government’s failings, nor did he label brown with the reasonability with the recession. Cameron’s new and clean politics my have backfired on him. He looked as if he had nothing to say, no real bite or passion. What Clegg did was criticize the other two, grouping them together as one whilst separating himself from them. He presented himself as a real change, a new alternative to the same old parties and kept a real theme and message throughout the debate, something both Brown and Cameron failed to do. This Thursday’s debate is about foreign policy. And I think, once again Clegg will prevail. He can play the Iraq card, stating how the Lib Dems were against it, as well as the fact he wants to withdraw from Afghanistan. It will most defiantly be good watching, as both Labour and the Tories will be out on the attack of the Lib Dems. Whatever the out come these TV debates have redefined the election, and will be the major events in the upcoming election campaign.
Once again sorry for the lack of blogging, especially at this crucial time on British Politics. On Friday I will Have a break down on all three’s manifesto as well as a review on the Thursday’s TV debate.
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